The Ukraine War’s Third Year

Posted on by murraylee757

About a year ago when I wrote about the Russo-Ukraine War, things were serious, but looking for the better for the Ukrainians. They had staved off offenses by the Russians, and were poised to make a counterattack thanks to weapons and ammo sent to them by the West. It looked like they would take back much of their lost territory, possibly all of it. Putin’s Russia was also looking pretty isolated, having to depend on China. That there was a rebellion in June 2023 by the Wagner Group paramilitary force encouraged the feeling that Russia would soon lose.

But a year later, things aren’t looking so good. While the Ukrainians did take some territory back in their counteroffensives last year, progress was slow. Then, military aid from some countries, notably the United States, came to a stop. Ukraine is finding itself on the defensive once more as Russian is on the offensive again, retaking some territory it had lost. Russian missile strikes on Ukraine continue, despite sanctions on the country. The one bright spot seemed to be attacks on two Russian ships, one crippled and one sunk.

What happened?

For one, as inept as the Russians were when attacking, they were much better on the defensive. This was in part because the West was slow to deliver certain equipment such as tanks and state of the art Western fighters and fighter/bombers. There was also that Russia was laying mines in territory the Ukrainians were launching counterattacks, resulting in them having to take the time and effort to remove them. There’s also that despite sanctions from the West, Russia has continued to trade with other countries, including the importation of weapons and the supplies needed to make them. China has been the biggest source of the trade. But other countries have been helping, such as Iran supplying Russia with drones. India, while one of the democracies, has continued to buy up Russian oil for cash.

And while Russia has continued to buy and manufacture weapons and artillery shells, Ukraine has been finding it’s sources of aid dry up. Several European countries have stopped and cut back. Military aid from the United States was not renewed. Why was this? Internal politics was one reason. A number of Republicans demanded more action be demanded about the surge of illegal aliens getting through into the country. And despite the two parties’ differences they managed to come up with a “Border Bill” that offered much of what the Republicans wanted. Then Donald Trump told the Reps to vote against it, saying they could do much better. That pretty much torpedoed not just the bill, but aid to Ukraine. Other comments from Trump have not been encouraging, him saying there would be no more aid to Ukraine, and of countries that he saw as not contributing enough to NATO, hinting that Russia could “do what they want” with them.

As I spoke before, the attitudes of the center left and many on the right have flip-flopped when it comes to Russia. In the 1980s, Ronald Reagan spoke of the “Evil Empire” and protecting the freedom of people in Europe, and Republicans were eager to stand up and get tough with the Soviet Union. Democrats in contrast expressed caution about antagonizing a nuclear power and felt the money used for defense spending was better off used in domestic spending. Forty years later, it’s the Democrats, at least the center-left ones who talk about standing up to the Russians and wanting to protect the freedom of Europeans. And it’s the Republicans who talk about not wanting to antagonize a nuclear power and that the money being sent to Ukraine would be better spent in America. This is a topic in itself I may get to later.

Conservative commentator Bill O’Riley would comment “America is forgetting the lessons of Munich.” For any readers not familiar, following Nazi Germany annexing Austria, Hitler set his sights on Czechoslovakia, demanding the outer part of the western half of the country, which was populated by some ethnic Germans. Hitler insisted this land would be his “last claim”, saying once these lands were under Nazi control, he would make no further demands. And wanting to avoid war, France and Britain agreed. Isolated, Czechoslovakia gave in. But Hitler would break his promise and march in, seizing control of the rest of the country, and soon afterwards making demands on Poland. The lesson learned by the Americans and British was that appeasement doesn’t work with aggressors. And with Putin having stated that he saw the breakup of the Soviet Union as the greatest disaster in modern history, it’s fair to say if he could, he’d have Russia retake all of the former Soviet states and reestablish the Warsaw Pact hegemony.

And besides some saying the Ukraine just isn’t their business, there are the more pacifist-minded who see all the fighting and death as pointless and just want it to end. And there are those who insist that the smaller country just doesn’t have what it takes to regain it’s lost territory, and needs to accept that. The Ukrainians would probably say the former are simply naive and the latter are doing what those who saw the country as doomed to fall on day one of the invasion: unable or unwilling to take them seriously.

While Europe is still sending some military aid to Ukraine, the country still needs arms from America to push out the Russians. So both Russia and Ukraine are waiting for the results of the US Presidential election in November 2024. If Biden wins, this means that aid can continue (after some negotiations with Congress). But if Trump wins, this means no more money from America after January 2025. The former would give hope to Ukraine that it could continue to fight and regain it’s lost territory. The later would embolden Putin to launch more attacks and demand that Ukraine submit, possibly demand even more territory and that any peace treaty would require that the country not belong to any military alliance other than with Russia.

So as the war goes into it’s third year, there is no end in sight. Ukraine is determined to retake the territory occupied by Russia, and Putin is still determined to hold onto it. It is likely to go on into next year. It could still end up an Ukrainian victory with all Russian forces expelled and firmly a member of NATO, a Russian victory with much territory lost and the peace treaty with the country unable to join NATO and having to host Russian military bases, or a messy conclusion with some territory lost for good to the Russians and a member of NATO but with mixed feelings toward their allies, feeling they were willing to keep them from drowning but not willing to spend the effort to get them from out of deep water.

What ultimately happens, we;ll eventually see.

More On The Gaza War

Posted on by murraylee757

In October, a friend of mine asked if we were in a world war.

A few weeks earlier, Hamas had launched it’s sneak terrorist attack on Israel from Gaza. While some military instillations were hit, they also targeted civilian areas in which few if any of the people were armed, notably one music festival. Terrified concert goers were gunned down as they ran away, or trying to hide. Families, men women and children, taking shelter in their homes were killed by grenades thrown in small openings. People arriving on the scene were horrified to find infants beheaded, sometimes in their cribs, and sometimes the small bodies made into a pile. There was one story of one baby that had been roasted alive in an oven. Hamas would also take many hostages, well over a hundred. Some were eventually released or liberated by force. While some hostages released described themselves as under strict control but unharmed, one women freed from her captors by soldiers described being repeatedly raped. And there have been numerous reports of rape, during the assault in which the women were shot afterwards, and on women still being held hostage. Almost 1200 Israelis were killed, the majority civilians.

It didn’t take long for Israel to respond. It soon launched an attack on Gaza. It’s goal was clear: the complete destruction of Hamas. They killed thousands of terrorists, Israel’s claim is over a third of the estimated 30,000 in Gaza, along with over a thousand captured. But the toll his been high. Over two hundred and fifty Israeli solders were killed in the counter-assault. And with Gaza being one of the most densely populated places in the Middle East, it was inevitable there would be civilian casualties. And they have mounted with thousands dead and many more wounded with inadequate medical help. How many is in dispute. The terrorists who control Gaza claim almost 25 thousand civilian dead. Israel puts the figure at around 13 to 19 thousand. Some humanitarian aid has made it in, but there are still scenes of women and children going hungry. It’s also not clear how much of the aid is being taken and held by the terrorists for their own purposes.

Despite that the conflict was started by Hamas, and the brutality shown by them on women and children, world opinion seems to be against Israel. While there has been some condemnation of Hamas, Israel seems to have gotten much more, including charges of genocide not just by some Arab governments, but also South Africa. There have been demonstrations in support of the Palestinians in Europe and the United States, sometimes even supporting Hamas and calling for the “liberation of Palestine” and “Palestine will be free, from sea to sea,” essentially calling for the end of Israel. Also, reports of antisemitism have been going up in Europe and the United States (as well as anti-Muslim).

So what’s going on? Why did Hamas launch the attack, and why is the one democracy in the Middle East, one that has elected Arabs in it’s government, get made the bad guy?

Of why the horrific assault was made, Hamas has been attacking Israel for years and launching rockets into the country, and Israel responding in kind. Over a decade ago, the Israelis made a counterattack for the purposes of punishing the terrorists and reducing it’s capacity to launch attacks. But this one was a far more stronger attack, one in which Hamas probably knew it was risking it’s existence. Why such a gamble? Israel’s relations with it’s neighbors has been gradually improving. While the Arabs aren’t thrilled with Israel, many considering it’s creation a result of European colonization, over the years they’ve come to the conclusion the country is there to stay. More Arab countries were making diplomatic talks both officially and unofficially. Supposedly even Saudi Arabia was talking to Israel about normalized relations. That the country where Islam’s holiest city would be exchanging ambassadors with the “Zionist entity” was likely too much tor many in Hamas to stand and that unless they did something, their enemy which once could never rest easy would be at peace. They and a few other bands would be fighting alone while their enemy would enjoy peace and diplomatic recognition from their former allies and supporters. While it meant that thousands of Palestinian civilians would inevitably be killed, they didn’t really care much, considering them expendable pawns in their game: to destroy Israel and kill/convert/expel the Jews and rule the Palestinians under an Islamofacist state.

Of why Israel has been so condemned, Democracies have been held to a higher standard in war, particularly in recent years. We try to avoid civilian casualties as if innocent people die, it is a tragedy. Authoritarian governments and their militaries, not so much. While more workers, and purchasers of their goods, are desirable, if some get killed in a conflict, too bad, “you can’t make an omelet without breaking a few eggs.” In Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine for instance, civilian infrastructure was targeted, and there were instances of Russian soldiers deliberately gunning down obviously unarmed civilians. There was no reaction from their authoritarian allies. When there was a story that a bomb had gone off at a Gazan hospital and it was assumed to be Israeli, there was condemnation against Israel before word came out that the bomb was Hamas’s.

There’s also that Israel’s much stronger in comparison to it’s enemies than it used to be. For much of it’s history, Israel lived under the threat of elimination. Upon it’s independence in 1948, the state came upon immediate attack from it’s Arab neighbors. For the three decades afterwards, it was at a technical state of war on all sides, the last of these wars in 1973. But after the Yom Kippur War, the situation started to change. Egypt made peace, and Jordan had no interest in further conflict. After that, Israel would continue military operations against terrorists, such as it’s invasion of Lebanon in the 1980s to stop the PLO from launching rockets into it’s cities and towns. But they were clearly the stronger power this time instead of the ragtag nation fighting for it’s life. One news commentator remarked they were looking less like the victim and more easily seen as a bully.

And then there is time. Not only is Israel stronger in comparison to the days when its existence was threatened, but those days have become more and more of a distant memory. For more recent generations, they have only the history books and maybe a few history YouTube videos to tell them about those days. What they see of today are images of Israeli military night, and news reports of Palestinian civilians being pushed around.

Over time, America’s Muslim population while still small has been growing. While it’s influence waned in the days after 9/11, it continued to slowly grow. And with this conflict, they’ve been making their feelings known in protesting the war.

Finally, there is where people are getting their information. Over time, not just newspapers and the “big three” TV network news programs have been experiencing declining ratings, but also major cable news networks such as CNN and Fox. More are relying on news and commentary podcasts. Many younger people, including many of the pro-Palestinian demonstrators in America, have been getting their news from Tik-Tok, the new social media platform owned by a Chinese company. It has been suspected that the computer algorithms used to chose videos are being deliberately made to select ones biased against Israel.

For the Biden Administration, the protests have given them an unwelcome choice. Jewish voters had traditionally voted mostly Democratic, as well as Muslim voters since 9/11. But there have been threats by the later to stay home at the polls on election day unless Biden condemns Israel’s actions, which would alienate Jewish voters as well as one of America’s allies. With numbers of Muslim voters in Michigan, it could mean the difference in this swing state in November, and possibly who wins the White House.

There have been some efforts at negotiation, and a few hostages have been released. But then Hamas stopped, demanding that every single militant in Israeli custody be released first. And so the conflict dragged on. As of the writing of this article. Israel has occupied more than half of Gaza, with just a few pockets of Hamas resistance in the north and cut deep into the south. The Israelis stand posed to assault the last major city under Hamas control: Rafah. As this would cause more civilian deaths, and with the numerous reports of civilian suffering, the demands that Israel stop it’s assault continue. But the Israeli Defense Force continues it’s counter-assault. And the conflict moves on to Israel’s goal of a total Hamas defeat.

So what happens after the war? If Hamas somehow survives, Palestinians will continue to be divided between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank. But an Israeli victory would mean the Palestinians not under Israeli occupation would be unified under the Authority’s leadership. But it would also mean Israel would have to manage and control Gaza and it’s territory, at least for the short term.

For America and Israel, there could be more complications in their friendship. As memories of World War Two and the Holocaust, as well as the memories of Israel fighting for it’s existence, fade from America’s collective memory, support for it’s military actions falls. With that as well as more Americans desiring a return to isolationism (a topic in itself) There very well could be decreased foreign aid to the country, and with more strings attached, as time goes on.

What happens over the long term to the Palestinians? Israel could take the opportunity to call on it’s neighbors that in order to keep a radical Islamic force from rising in Gaza again, they need to work together, putting in place moderate leadership and aid and investment to bring up the standard of living for the people there. But sadly this may not be what will happen. The effect of the October 6 attacks and the stories of women raped & murdered and babies butchered was horrifying to the Israeli public, described as “9/11 times fifteen.” Support for a two-state solution for the Palestinian question is the lowest it’s been in over twenty years. What’s more likely to happen is the Gazans living under military occupation for years, possibly a partial deportation to the West Bank, which will likely be under increased scrutiny from the Israeli military. For Israel’s neighbors, the period of warming relations has come to an end, replaced by ill feelings over the deaths of Palestinian civilians. So real peace in the region will have to wait for years, probably for at least another generation.

Personally, I feel chances are, it won’t be within my lifetime.

Happy New Year, Well, Maybe Not So Happy

Posted on by murraylee757

A new year has arrived, we took a moment to celebrate, and then it was back to business. In the days before the Internet, I usually found January a bit boring. It was cold, and nothing really to do outside. And aside from the Superbowl, there wasn’t normally much in the news. There were a few exceptions, such as the Gulf War, and then there were election years which got my attention in the news.

So the Internet keeps me from being bored. But there have been a few news stories. The Ukraine War has slowed down though still going on and still being a meatgrinder, the defenders progress in retaking lost territory slowing down. There’s the Gaza War, in which a democratic country that was the subject of a brutal horrific attack that killed hundreds of civilian men women and children is being looked at as the bad guy by some in the West. And there’s the US Presidential Election in which the primaries and caucuses have started with Iowa and New Hampshire. Despite a field of candidates for the Republicans a few months ago, it’s clear that unless something unexpected happens, it will once again be a Trump-Biden match-up. This will be the first time in decades a Presidential Election has had the same two candidates as last time, and the first time in over a century a party has nominated a former President.

Yours truly has been a little busy with his new job on his side of the computer, so only so much time to write. Maybe I’ll have a little something more soon.

A Few Thoughts On The Gaza War

Posted on by murraylee757

I haven’t been writing much, and I waited to write something about the Gaza War, partly because stuff keeps changing, and I have been trying to keep a happy face for some Internet friends who have been sad at times. But, here are a few ramblings on what has been a horrible event in the news.

After day one, reports on just how savage the attacks were trickled in. The Hamas terrorists went after not just Israeli soldiers, but mostly after civilians, attacking homes and neighborhoods, and a music festival that was going on. The butchers not only took scores of terrified hostages, including Americans, but shot men women and children in cold blood, tossed grenades into safe rooms with nothing but terrified families inside, and left behind bloody piles of beheaded babies. Even keeping in mind the horrors of ISIS and other radical Islamofacist groups a few years ago, this level of brutality was a new low.

With this shocking level of savagery and depravity, there could be only one response from the Israelis, and that was to counterattack. But with Gaza being one of the most crowded places on Earth, the response was inevitably collateral damage: Palestinian civilians. The response was anger from not just the Arab World, but even here in America. In a sharp contrast to after 9/11 when we all stood against terrorism, there were people, even a few politicians, who couldn’t get themselves to condemn or acknowledge the brutality of Hamas. There were demonstrations against Israel, some people calling for Israel to be forced back to it’s 1948 borders, or done away with entirely. There were even people praising the terrorist attacks! One person on social media commented “I can see why Hitler wanted to kill them all.” And one synagogue leader was killed.

In a generation, we’ve gone from universally condemning terrorism to some of us praising it.

Fortunately, these comments are not going unanswered. Universities which have been the scene of pro-Hamas demonstrations are being contacted by sponsors, saying there will be no donations this year. Some people identified in the protests as praising the terrorists are being fired from jobs, or put on a blacklist. But that such comments were made to begin with, it’s times like these I wonder if there will soon be fighting at home.

In the meantime, what just happened is a new low by terrorists acting out in the name of the Palestinians that pretty much ensures no real peace in the area for over a generation, continuing this “second Hundred Years War” for many years to come.

Bits and Pieces

Posted on by murraylee757

There’s been a few things on my mind, and not a lot of time to write about them.

One thing going on is the increasing discord in America between liberals and conservatives. Someone called this state of affairs a “Cold Civil War.” I find it fitting as while we’re not actively fighting, we’re not quite at peace either. I’ll have an article on this later on.

Someone asked me why haven’t I written about transsexuals, or transgendered as the preferred term seems to be. In short, there aren’t that many in the general population, and the issue could be considered just part of the “culture wars” going on.

Been trying to find a job lately, but I have yet to find full time employment. Someone once commented that if you’re in you’re late 40s and 50s, you’re at a real disadvantage when it comes to getting a job. Maybe, maybe not, but it’s been taking me a while.

On a related subject, been hearing quite a bit about how average Americans have been having it rough lately. It seems for the working man and woman, his/her income has been going down while inflation goes up. And not only that, but it seems to have been going on for some time. Many people are naturally looking for simple solutions: “Tax the rich!” “Fight the globalists!” But for others, the issue seems not so simple, and seeing no easy solution ahead.

In the news, polls show the majority of Americans want a choice in the next Presidential Election other than Trump and Biden. But there are no serious challengers to Biden emerging, and the most noticeable one, Robert Kennedy Jr. is being portrayed as a highly flawed man who believes in conspiracy theories. With the Republicans, despite his legal problems, Trump remains as the candidate far in the lead of Rep voter polls. So it seems next year will be another “hold your nose” election, at least for the moment. In politics, things can change in a hurry very fast, sometimes.

Re-reading an old history textbook, it commented about how books written in the Renaissance area such as “Utopia” talked about people being flawed not so much because they were naturally but because of flawed institutions. This was a break from Medieval thought which stated the masses were naturally corrupt and self-centered. Indeed the concept of a democratic republic depends on the idea of faith of the voters to be able to make intelligent decisions. But lately it seems there’s been a lack of faith about it here in America, at least with voters of different ideologies. It’s my impression that in general, Americans when it came to politics considered the other side wrong but still having basically good intentions. Lately however, I’ve been hearing more on the left considering conservatives as having fascist tendencies, and conservatives more and more are expressing fear of democratic voters, especially younger ones, as having no regard of their rights and having a willingness, if not an eagerness to steal and destroy and hurt anyone who gets in their way. How this lack of faith will affect democracy in the near future, I don’t know, but it does lead to some troubling thoughts.

More later.

Still Here, But …

Posted on by murraylee757

It’s been a busy few months for me. In Second Life has come my “Busy Season,” writing about the Relay for Life and the Second Life Birthday. I’ve also been working on my science-fiction novels, “The Corsean Encounter,” And it’s sequel, “Prelude To War.”

But I will have something up, eventually

Presidents I Have Witnessed: Bill Clinton – The Comeback Kid

Posted on by murraylee757

Shortly after Republican George Bush defeated Democrat Michael Dukakis in the 1988 Presidential Election, there was a commentary in Newsweek magazine, “Are The Democrats Cursed?” It noted that in the six such elections since 1968, the Democrats had won only one. The writer felt unless the party shook the perception that they were stuck in 1960s Liberalism, they would continue to have trouble.

It would be up to an Arkansas politician to break that curse.

Bill Clinton was born in 1946, the son of a traveling salesman who died before his birth and whose mother would marry a car salesman. It was in high school where he decided to take a path into politics. He attended Yale Law School, where he met Hillary Rodham and after his graduation they would marry a few years later. His career in politics would start soon afterwards, getting elected as governor of Arkansas, the youngest in the country at 32. He would lose the next election, but won again. He presented himself as a moderate of the “New Democrat” wing, and would head the Democratic Leadership Council in 1990 and 1991.

It was in 1991 that he announced himself as a candidate for the Democratic nomination. With the Republican President George Bush having such a strong approval rating, a number of well-known nationally known Democrats sat the race out. His campaign was hit with a major crisis early on when a woman named Jenifer Flowers claimed to have a longtime affair with him. He appeared with his wife on the 60 Minutes news program to deny it. Shortly afterwards, he came in second in the New Hampshire primary. This was seen as a victory by many, called by some the “Comeback Kid.” His campaign would continue to deal with stories of past affairs, which came to be called “bimbo eruptions,” but for the remainder of the election they would mainly be a nuisance at most. He also captured the attention of many with his performance of playing the saxophone on late night TV, getting applause and seen as someone the masses could relate to. He would go on to win most of the primaries and secure the Democratic nomination, the song “Don’t Stop Thinking About Tomorrow” playing after his acceptance speech. He would pick Senator Al Gore, a fellow Southerner, as his running mate.

In 1991, President Bush had looked almost unbeatable following his success with the Gulf War. But as the months passed, memories of the triumph faded and concerns went back to the economy, which was in a persistent recession. People also recalled incidents like when he appeared to be amazed by a supermarket checkout scanner that had already been around for several years, making him look a bit out of touch to the concerns of everyday Americans. And with one as a candidate, many Baby Boomers liked the idea of one of their own in the White House. And after twelve years, some felt it was time for a change in the Presidency from the Republicans.

Besides Clinton, there was also a wild card in the race, billionaire Ross Perot running as an independent. He attracted the attention of a number people not quite trusting of either party, speaking out against the deficit and the unwillingness of politicians fo face up to the problem. His quirky and unpolished manner attracted a following for a time. But as the weeks went on, his erratic behavior and some odd statements of his would raise questions, and he would drop out of the race in July 1992. He would reenter on October 1, but would get back only part of the support in the polls he had earlier.

Bush would raise questions about Clinton’s character, and Republicans would raise issues such as a letter the young Clinton had wrote to get exempted from the Vietnam War draft as well as some questions about his wife. But the President would remain behind in the polls. On Election Day, Bill Clinton would win 370 to 168 Electoral Votes, and get 43 percent of the Popular vote compared to 37.5 for Bush. With almost 19% of the Popular Vote, Perot had the strongest showing for a third-party candidate since Teddy Roosevelt’s Bull Moose run in 1912. He would try to keep his Reform Party as a political force, but it would never again be the force it was in Spring 1992.

For the Democrats, it was a celebration. After twelve years they were back in the White House and had control of Congress. For the Republicans, they were back in the political wilderness, the glory days of Reagan and the triumph of the Gulf War and the end of the Cold War now memories. Plus some were unhappy with a “draft-dodger” and someone less than faithful with his wife in the past, now in the White House, “When the fifty-year anniversaries of major World War Two battles come, we’ll have this guy who loathed the military at the ceremonies.”

Clinton’s first term was an overall good one. For the first two years, his fellow Democrats were in charge of both houses of Congress. He would sign some tax increases, but they were not at the level the Republicans had feared. Despite predictions the taxes would squash the recovery, they didn’t. The economy continued to do better in an economic expansion that would last for several years.

But not all went well. Early in his term was the Somalia crisis in which several US soldiers were killed in the capital in a fight with warlords following a decision to try and turn the humanitarian relief of food to starving refugees under President Bush into an exercise of nation building. This failure is believed to be partially why the US Government mostly stayed out of the Rwandan massacres in Rwanda a couple years later. Clinton’s wife Hillary Clinton was put in charge of a group to come up with ways to reform the American medical system. The resulting plan was seen by many as highly bureaucratic. Or as a friend of mine put it, “It would basically put the Government in charge of health care.” The plan went nowhere. One member of Clinton’s cabinet, Vince Foster, would end up committing suicide. Conspiracy theorists would charge the President or his wife was somehow involved, but without evidence they were blown off.

Those further left were less than happy with Bill Clinton, feeling he wasn’t raising taxes on the wealthy high enough, sometimes calling him a “big money Democrat.” Another complication for Clinton and the Democrats was conservative talk radio. Led by Rush Limbaugh, a master of “infotainment,” the programs would continue to blast away at the President. As the 1994 Congressional Election loomed, the Republicans made a greater effort to win more of these offices. And they succeeded, the party taking both the Senate and for the first time since the 1950s had a majority in the House.

While Congress falling into the hands of the opposition would be a major setback for many Presidents, Clinton took it in stride. He worked with the Republicans, led by House Speaker Newt Gingrich, successfully in deals concerning the budget, in some ways better than the more left members of his own party. The deficit did end up going down, and eventually the Government would run a surplus in the mid-90s. This would be the first time it had done so in about forty years, and as of the writing of this article has not been able to do so since.

Terrorism, both domestic and overseas was a concern. In 1993, the FBI made a raid on the Branch Davidians near Waco Texas, attempting to arrest them for stockpiling illegal weapons. The result was a standoff that lasted for weeks until the FBI moved in, and someone set a fire, destroying the compound. A number of the cultists would suicide, some others and their kids died in the fire, survivors were arrested and some given time in prison. Few defended the cult leader, but critics saw this as overreach by oppressive Government officials against people minding their own business. One murderous terrorist would use the incident as an excuse for detonating a truck bomb at a Federal Building in Oklahoma City in April 1995, killing 168. A number of right-wing militias would also form in response to what they saw as an increasingly oppressive US Government, though another motivation was likely the anticipation something big would happen around the Year 2000. Islamic radicals would do even greater damage against American targets. In 1993, Islamists would set off a bomb at the World Trade Center in New York. They intended to kill thousands, but few people died. In 1998, US embassies in Tanzania and Kenya were bombed by Islamists, killing over 200. A team was sent to Afghanistan to kill the ringleader, Bin-Laden, but withdrawn. After the 9/11 attacks following his term, Clinton’s critics would charge he missed an opportunity to prevent them.

In 1996, the Republicans would nominate Senator Bob Dole, WW2 veteran and former Vice President under Gerald Ford. The Republicans hoped that putting someone who had been wounded fighting Nazi Germany would be a good contrast to Clinton, who still had questions about his character. It didn’t work. Clinton would beat dole soundly, winning both the popular vote and a more solid Electoral victory than four years earlier. Ross Perot would run again under the Reform Party banner, but with getting less than nine percent of the vote did little more than deny Clinton an outright majority of the Popular vote.

Clinton would approve limited intervention in the Serb-Bosnian War in the former Yugoslavia in the form of limited strikes from the air. There was a stumble when a bomb struck the Chinese embassy in Serbia, and China of course protested. But eventually the Bosnians would force the Serbians to back down and sign a peace deal.

Bill Clinton would accomplish some diplomatic triumphs. He would negotiate an arms agreement with Russia. NATO would expand under his watch, Clinton approving of the request of Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic to join. And he would continue the work of George Bush on the North American Free Trade Agreement, bringing Mexico into the trade zone. There were some concerns from unions that this would not be good for blue-collar jobs in American, but it was approved by conservatives and “New Democrats” alike.

Clinton seemed to be destined for a Presidency that would be an unquestioned triumph. But smarting after their defeat, some Republicans kept looking for something they could use against him. It was about this time the World Wide Web brought the Internet more and more to the masses. And critics of Clinton could use it to share all sorts of rumors and tales. Among these were people who had worked for the Clintons in the past who supposedly met untimely ends. The death of one cabinet secretary, Ron Brown, in a plane crash while doing diplomatic duty in the former Yugoslavia raised hackles from some conspiracy theorists. But once again, without evidence their claims went nowhere outside the far-right. That http://www.whitehouse.com would come to be the location of a porn website might not have been done by a Clinton critic, but it no doubt got numerous chuckles from them.

Unfortunately for Clinton, his weakness for women and his tendency towards recklessness when doing well caught up with him. Stories began circulating that he was having an affair with intern Monica Lewinsky. Clinton denied them of course, “I did not have sexual relations with that woman.” But then evidence came forward that he was, the story spread by Internet news. Eventually Clinton admitted to the affair, first to his wife, who supposedly responded by throwing a lamp at him, “You stupid stupid bastard!” And then to the public. His critics had a field day, feeling that their charges of him being an immoral character were vindicated.

Not content with a censure of his behavior, many Republicans wanted impeachment. This raised no shortage of eyebrows as no President had ever been impeached since Andrew Johnson in 1867. While Congress had approved articles of impeachment against President Nixon, he had resigned before they could be carried out. As a successful impeachment would require a two-thirds of the Senate voting for such, there was no chance of this happening, and some Reps wondered if it should be tried. Dems of course charged the Reps were making a mountain out of a molehill, essentially putting the President on trial for a matter that while despicable was best left to be resolved behind closed doors. Some wondered if the real objective was to embarrass the President’s party so it would be easier to beat in the next election.

The articles of impeachment would be approved, and for the second time in American history, they were approved by the House, which was still led by Republicans. Bill Clinton’s testimony would be recorded, at one point he would respond to one question, “that depends on what the meaning of ‘is’ is,” a line that critics would use against him for years. As expected, the vote went much along party lines and the impeachment failed. But it would prove no real help to the Republicans, who would lose House seats in the 1998 Congressional elections, and the House would go back under Democrat control. But in a sense the damage was done. Bill Clinton would not be the same again. He would be the President to bring America into the 21st Century, with some concerns about right-wing militias and worries of the “Y2K” bug possibly wrecking the Internet, but he was a quieter man.

Vice-President Al Gore would run for President in 2000, and get the Democratic nomination. The Dems hoped he would beat the Republican’s choice of George W. Bush, who seemed like a lightweight. But unlike Clinton, Gore had something of a wooden personality. While the Dems were helped by the relatively still good economy, it wasn’t enough. Bush would win a narrow Electoral victory, Florida determined only by several thousand votes.

Following their time in the White House, the Clintons would make money giving speeches. Bill Clinton’s love of fast food eventually caught up to him in the form of heart disease, and he had to have surgery. He would reluctantly change his diet, getting some attention for going vegan for a time. Hillary Clinton would go on to become Senator in New York, and make a bid for the White House in 2008, and barely lose the nomination to Barack H. Obama. She would serve as his Secretary of State for a time before resigning. She would try for the Presidency again in 2016, winning the Democratic nomination, but would lose the Presidential race to amateur politician Donald Trump. Hillary Clinton would occasionally make news for writing a book about her election loss and occasional statement, but Bill Clinton has mostly been quiet.

Bill Clinton’s legacy has been a somewhat complicated one. Over the years, some conservatives have softened their views of him, admitting under him times were good, he with Gingrich did balance the budget, and feeling they may have been a little harsh with him concerning his affairs. With some high-profile sexual harassment cases in the news in recent years, in contrast some feminists have come to feel he needs to be judged more harshly. And progressives continue to complain he and his wing of the Democrats basically sold out to big business and capitalism. He was also in the shadow of his wife as she acted under her own political ambitions as New York Senator, and then Secretary of State and Presidential candidate. He was a politician and President who could bounce back from setbacks. But once he was doing well, his impulsiveness and recklessness was often the cause of setbacks.

Despite his successes, he will likely be remembered mainly for the affair that hung over his second term. So casual historians will likely notice Kennedy before him as a successful Democrat President in the years following World War Two. In a sense, the results of his actions would be a warning for later Presidents in the Internet Age, anyone in high office having an affair would do so at his peril as once found out the stories would be impossible to control.

Still, he was a game-changer, taking a political party that had lost five out of the previous six Presidential Elections as of 1988, and turning it into one that as of the writing of this article would win the Popular Vote in seven of the next eight. The party would also end up adopting to some degree a number of their opposition’s policies, or at least a modified version. Personally, I rank him B to B -, the best Democratic President of those I’ve witnessed.

Bill Clinton in some ways could be considered a President of his time. After Reagan and the Cold War along with Bush and the Gulf War, many Americans wanted to forget the world’s problems and just take it easy and enjoy life. Clinton’s past as having an eye for the ladies and his known fondness for fast food and cheeseburgers may have made him easier for a number of voters to relate to. As I was a young conservative Republican, while happy that others could see good in him, I wasn’t sure what to make of him while he was in office. I was glad the economy was doing well, but could still chuckle at the jokes talk radio made about him, and cringed when “Monicagate” made the news.

While he could be amoral and crass at times, I consider Bill Clinton the best President I voted against.

The Russo-Ukraine War: One Year Later

Posted on by murraylee757

It was about a year ago in which Russian forces entered the Ukraine in force. Called a “special military operation” by Vladimir Putin, the Russians, and some in the West, thought it would be over in a matter of days, that the Ukrainians would offer poor resistance. A year later, while the Russians occupy some territory, many tens of thousands on both sides have been killed, some estimates put the total death toll at over a quarter million, the war shows no sign of ending anytime soon.

So how did the fighting start? While Ukrainians have had a distinct culture, only recently have they been an independent country, at least for very long. While they were briefly a country in the final year of the First World War and for a few years afterwards, they were absorbed by the Soviet Union as the Russian Civil War was won by the Reds, with the western part annexed by Poland following it’s victory in a short war with the Soviets. The Ukrainians suffered under Soviet rule, with millions dying from not just Stalin’s purges that had many excited or exiled to Siberia, but also man-made famine as a result of communist collectivization that confiscated private farms and officials confiscating food from farmers. World War Two would bring further misery with Nazi Germany’s invasion. While some Ukrainians were hopeful the enemy of their oppressors could only be better, their hopes were dashed as Nazi policy was to treat Russian and Ukrainian alike as subhuman. Millions more would die from the war.

Following the war, territory that had been annexed by Poland earlier was incorporated back in. Under Khrushchev, the Crimea would be transferred from Russia to Ukraine, partially as a postwar gift and partially because the Soviet leader considered it closer to Ukraine culturally and economically. In 1986, the Chernobyl disaster would spur ill feelings among Ukrainians toward the Russians, and desires for independence from Russia grew. There would be a independence movement and demonstrations for this, or at least greater sovereignty. Finally came the attempted coup by hardline Communists to oust Soviet leader Gorbachev, which failed. Two days later on August 24 1991, Ukraine declared itself independent.

While Ukraine was now independent, the country maintained ties to Russia. This was due mainly to two reasons. Under the Soviets, the country’s economy was tied and integrated with Russia. Also, since the Ukrainians and Russians had fought off the Nazis together, there had been something of a bond between the two that remained, and a number of Russians and Ukrainians intermarried, as well as some Russians moving to Ukraine.

One consequence of the breakup of the Soviet Union was that Ukraine ended up with the third largest stockpile of nuclear weapons. The country would give these up on exchange for “independence and sovereignty in the existing borders” and that they would get help “should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used.” These talks and agreements would be known as the Budapest Memorandum. Ukraine would become one of only four countries, the others being Belarus, Kazakhstan, and South Africa, that gave up nukes after having them. Another consequence was that Russia ended up with it’s Black Sea fleet in Ukrainian territory. The Soviet ships there were split between the Russians and Ukrainians, and some port facilities at Sevastopol Crimea were leased to Russia for it’s regional fleet.

Free from Russian hegemony after the fall of the Iron Curtain, Russia’s former Warsaw Pact satellites would seek to join NATO, not trusting that Russia would remain peaceful over the long term. And under US Presidents Clinton and W. Bush, they did. The Baltic republics, which had been part of the USSR, would also join under Bush. But there was no wish to go further. America was fine with the Ukraine as a neutral state. Henry Kissinger in a recent interview stated that at the time it was desirable that Ukraine be a “bridge” between Russia and Europe, neither firmly in the West’s or Russia’s side.

Things went more or less okay in the days when Boris Yeltsin was the leader of Russia. Then came Vladimir Putin. As a leader, Putin desired to increase his own power, doing so carefully. But he also desired that Russian have power over the other former Soviet republics, considering the breakup of the USSR the biggest disaster in Russian history. Belarus ended up under the control of a dictator, one who didn’t mind cooperating with Putin as long as he was still in charge of his country, so that was no problem for the Russian strongman. But the Ukraine was another matter. While it had troubles with corruption and politicians that desired power, it never did become a dictatorship. While ties with Russia remained, many in the country wanted closer ties with Western Europe and the European Union.

Following the election in Ukraine of a pro-Russian leader, the country began leaning closer to Putin. Then in 2013, things came to a head when said leader refused to sign an agreement with the EU approved by Parliament. The result were protests that eventually led to his impeachment. Frustrated, seeing the country going back to siding with the West, Putin’s response was to invade and annex the Crimea, violating the deal Russia made a decade and a half earlier to respect the country’s borders. Putin would also encourage ethnic Russian unrest in eastern Ukraine and support small rebel groups. The fighting between these rebels and the Ukrainian government over the next several years would kill thousands and over a million would move from the regions.

The quick seizure of the Crimea, and the persistent rebellion in the east led to some doubts as to how Ukraine would fare in a larger war. Some news articles I read described much of the population as having divided loyalties. One ethic Russian Ukrainian general stated that if there was such an invasion, he would likely resign. But behind the scenes, America was arming and training the country’s army.

Eventually, Zelensky would be elected as Ukraine’s President. As he had been an actor and comedian, there were questions as how seriously he could be taken. In 2021, he offered high level talks with Putin. The Russian strongman would reject them, endorsing a comment by an ally that there was no use negotiating with Ukraine while it was a “vassal” of America. Putin would also make a statement that the Russians and Ukrainians were one people and ethnicity, basically calling the country of Ukraine illegitimate. Allies of Putin would say the country must become part of Russia, even if the Ukrainians were against it.

In October 2021, Putin would begin a buildup of Russian forces on Ukraine’s borders. He would demand the west sign an agreement never to allow NATO to join. While America and it’s European allies did not desire Ukrainian membership in NATO, neither did they want to shut the “open door” policy that it had. Zelensky also stated Putin couldn’t be trusted to honor a neutrality agreement. In mid-February, US intelligence became increasingly concerned and asked Americans in the country to leave and warned Zelensky’s government. Finally on February 22, Russia’s forces invaded.

For the first few days, a stunned world watched, many expecting Ukraine would soon fall. But the Ukrainians fought fiercely. Predictions that divided sympathies among the populace would mean light resistance turned out to be false. Even ethnic Russians joined their fellow Ukrainians to defend the country. In contrast, the Russians seemed bungled and inept, footage of stuck convoys making world news due to confusion and vehicles breaking down. Soldiers would end up lightly supplied. An offensive from the north meant to take the capital of Kiev failed. Thrusts from the south had somewhat better luck, but stalled as well. Zelensky turned out not to be a softie, but a fighter. When he was offered transportation out of Kiev, his response was he needed bullets not a plane ride. It wasn’t just Ukrainian soldiers fighting back, but civilians with either hunting rifles or semiautomatic weapons that were illegal but bought and owned anyway (score one for the NRA). Numerous women and children and a few very old men would flee the country, notably to Poland. But practically every able-bodied male would stay and fight, or help the war effort in some way.

Besides it’s claims that the Ukraine wasn’t a real country, Russian would justify its invasion by making claims that the Ukrainians were dominated by neo-Nazis. When challenged, sometimes Russians would respond that anything against Russia and it’s interests was Nazism, trying to redefine the term. More often, they would just double down on their lie. But as the days passed, who was really committing the horrors and the scale of how much became more and more known. While many, perhaps most, Russian soldiers fought professionally, some would commit atrocities. There were not just numerous tales of civilians being shot, but also pictures and video footage of numerous civilian corpses and civilians being killed, including from cellphones. While no doubt some of the civilians were those who had taken arms against the invasion, most weren’t. The Russians would try to hide these crimes with mass burials and cremation trucks, but were only partial successful.

So why did Putin’s first attack fail? Besides the Ukrainians having a much stronger resolve and ability than expected, Russia’s military turned out to be much less competent than expected. While elite forces fought well, the main army suffered from lack of supplies and low morale. Soldiers messaged home that they were told only they were being sent to friendly territory, and were shocked to find hostile civilians cursing their presence. Vehicles had not been maintained properly, such as moving trucks once in a while so the tires wouldn’t get brittle. Thanks to missiles supplied from the West, Russia couldn’t establish air superiority either.

Support from the West was uneven at first. America led the way with ammunition, rockets, and missiles. Some European countries sent smaller amounts, notably Poland which would send older Russian made equipment the Ukrainians were more familiar with, but eventually more modern gear. Others hesitated, Germany for example offering to send an order of helmets, but no guns or ammo. But eventually even the reluctant Germans would send some lethal aid. Still, no European country has matched America’s effort. The West would also respond economically with sanctions, and many international companies would leave Russia, including McDonalds who had a noted restaurant in Moscow for years.European countries would also start to wean themselves off Russian gas, aided by the lack of a severe winter. There would be protests in Russia. But the response from Putin was to crack down. And over time, a number of Russians would leave the country.

With the initial attack having failed, Putin would eventually change tactics. He would pull back his forces in north-central Ukraine, relieving the pressure on Kiev. But with relief also came shock and anger as the bodies of numerous civilians were discovered at abandoned villages and towns. Then came another Russian offensive to try and take eastern Ukraine. It took some territory, then like the first offensive ground to a halt. Eventually the Ukrainians would counterattack, and retake much of the territory they lost before they ran low on steam.

Russia would also conduct a propaganda campaign, spreading tales of Ukrainian “Nazism.” Sadly some in the West would believe it, including one friend of mine. There would also be tales of Ukrainian weapons being lost to corruption and sold to terrorist organizations. They would find a receptive audience by those in the US who feel the fight is none of America’s business.

Russia reacted to it’s huge losses by having Putin’s mercenary army, the Wagner Group, recruit convicts from prison, promising the clearing of their sentences of they enlisted. They would basically end up cannon fodder, units made of of them suffering as much as 80% casualties. The idea was for them to tire out Ukrainian units, then fresh and more battle-experienced Wagner units would engage and inflict greater losses. Eventually Putin would order a draft. This resulted in some protests, but the people were arrested and in some cases added to the draft. Many more would flee the country in a second exodus from the country, not willing to fight for a cause they didn’t believe in and would likely get them killed, not to mention the dismal conditions of recruits in Russia’s army. Draftees were put in two groups. Those who had some military experience were given somewhat decent weapons and gear. Those who didn’t were given very basic directions on firing guns, then sent into action. The tactic of using cannon fodder to soak up Ukrainian bullets and shells was repeated.

While Russia became isolated diplomatically and economically from the West, it’s isolation was not total. While some Third World countries condemned the invasion, partially due to principle and partially due to shipments of Ukrainian wheat being stopped and the price of food imports going up, others would mute their protests. India would also not join in the West’s condemnation, and continued to buy Russian gas and oil. As Iran has it’s own issues with the West, it would sell Russia drones, which Putin’s forces would use against Ukraine. China would also refuse to condemn the invasion. As an undemocratic nation desiring to annex a smaller one, Taiwan, it’s government’s sympathies lie with Putin. China also has a large economy with a lack of natural resources in the country. And with Russia having fewer customers, it’s able to get better deals on Russian gas and oil.

A year after the invasion began, there is little sign of the war ending anytime soon. As of the writing of this article, Russian forces are engaged in an offensive to take a strategic town. But progress is slow, the Ukrainians not giving up much ground. Recently, America and Germany agreed to send Ukraine some tanks. Both countries were somewhat slow to do so, the US feeling German ones would be easier for the Ukrainians to drive and supply and the Germans concerned about memories of the last time there were German tanks fighting Russians in the Ukraine. But eventually both countries agreed to send them over.

With Russia’s nuclear arsenal, some have worried about the idea of the conflict turning nuclear. Since Putin’s central goal is staying in power, the odds of a nuke being sent to the West are practically nil as a full blown nuclear exchange would mean he would have little to rule over, if he were still alive. A more realistic possibility is a nuke fired at an Ukrainian city as a “surrender or else” message, or possibly tactical nukes to blow holes in the front line. Such an action would mean the West would have to ratchet up it’s aid, such as Patriot missiles, and possibly find other ways of punishing Putin for crossing a line that’s been set since the end of WW2. Others question the shape of Russia’s nukes. With their army and navy having performed so badly, how serious is the Russian nuclear threat. People have guessed that if Putin skimmed off the military budget to maintain his fortune and the lifestyle of valued allies, it’s likely not what it was during the days of the USSR.

With protesters having been detained or fled the country, Putin’s control over Russia has become stronger than ever. The only real threat to him seems to be from within his circle of oligarch allies, who he can deal with by way of rewarding with luxuries such as large countryside homes and fancy cars, or making them go away in “suicides.” It’s unclear whether of not his regime could survive an obvious defeat in Ukraine. Not that he would admit Russia being beaten, as he would likely claim that his troops accomplished their overall mission of “purging Ukraine of Nazism” in spite of the West opposing them every step of the way. But for now their strategy seems to be to continue to throw large numbers of under-supplied troops at the Ukrainians while waiting for the West to loose heart and stop sending weapons.

For Ukraine, there is no talk of peace. What sympathies they had for the Russians died with the pictures and stories of civilian massacres. There is only determination to drive out the invader from the territory they still occupy, including the Crimea. With very little navy and the peninsula connected to Ukraine by only a tiny neck of land, this is a task that they’d be hard pressed to accomplish without a collapse in their enemy’s ability to fight. But they are determined.

For China, the Ukraine War has brought warning, and opportunity. Concerns about a possible mainland Chinese invasion of Taiwan have been growing in recent years. The strong reaction to Russia’s invasion of it’s neighbor was a message to Beijing that any similar move of it’s own on the island would be met with harsh sanctions and military help for it’s target. But the country has not only been able to make better deals on gas and oil from Russia, but also increase diplomatic and economic ties to central Asian republics, bringing them a little further away from Russia and closer to China. China and Russia may need each other’s help when it comes to resisting what they see as American hegemony, but Russia is clearly the junior partner in the relationship. And for Russia, not only will the former Soviet central Asian countries fall under Chinese influence, as Chinese investment grows in Siberia, that part of Russia may as well.

For Europe, a new Cold War has arrived. The invasion has demonstrated that Russia cannot truly be trusted to leave a neighbor alone if it thinks it can take it. Europe has responded by weaning themselves off Russian gas. Sweden and Finland decided to abandon neutrality and applied to join NATO. The only country in their way is Turkey, which has objections to the two calling it out for human rights abuses. But that may change due to aid being sent to the Turks following the recent earthquake there. But will the Europeans continue to help the Ukrainians? The Poles are certainly eager to do so, memories of decades of Soviet domination burned in their collective memories. Others, probably not so much. While they don’t want Russia to win, they’re not particularly eager to raise taxes and cut social spending for a greater war effort.

For America, the arrival of another Cold War with Russia has brought no shortage of discussion, and in some ways a reversal of party platforms. While only a handful of people believe the stories of the Ukrainians being Nazis, a number of Americans feel we need to stay out. With a town in Ohio recently hit by a toxic chemical spill from a train derailing, some charge the country can either help it’s own citizens or Ukraine’s but not both. But the most vocal protests are not coming from the left, as they did in the days of Vietnam and the Reagan buildup, but from the right. In contrast to the 1980s when Democrat leaders called for unilateral nuclear disarmament and peaceful resolutions with the Russians then, today they’ve taken the lead in calling for standing up to Russia and it’s aggression. Not all on the right feel this way. One poll I heard about stating about half of Republican voters favor continued aid to the Ukraine, possibly those with longer memories and who remember Reagan well. But the louder voices, led by Donald Trump, feel the Russo-Ukraine War is a fight we should stay out of. Why this switch has occurred is a topic in itself. In short, it seems longtime historic isolationism tendencies are making a comeback as memories of the War on Terror fade.

Putin seems to be pinning his hopes on two outcomes. One is that Russia’s larger population will come out on top in a grinding war of attrition that impacts Ukraine’s smaller number of available manpower more. The second is that Trump, whom is on the record of calling Russia’s invasion a “smart move” will win the 2024 US Presidential election and bring US aid to the Ukraine to a halt, or at least cut back on it severely. It’s unclear how much aid Western Europe will provide if America loses heart. Without it, the Ukrainians will have little choice but to sue for peace and accept the annexation of much of their land by the aggressor.

Should Russia walk away from it’s invasion of Ukraine as a winner, aggressive nations will likely see this as a signal that they can get away with bullying and annexing parts of their neighbors. The “Pax Americana” that has existed since the Gulf War and end of the Cold War with the USSR may be over, and nations will have to rely more on military deterrence, including possibly nuclear deterrence as more countries start developing nuke programs.

UPDATE: An Ukrainian would message me after reading this article, saying I left out one detail not known to many outside the country. He stated Ukraine wasn’t simply just given the Crimea by Khrushchev, but that it was exchanged for some territory on it’s eastern edge.

Image Source: PBS

My 2000’s Gaming Friend’s Science-Fiction Novel

Posted on by murraylee757

Some of you know I’ve been writing some science-fiction stories, in addition to my newsletter about Second Life and this blog. “The Corsean Encounter” is one I’ve been working on for years. Other friends such as Nydia Tungsten have also been working on one. And then there was one that a friend of mine from years ago was working on, which started out as a roleplaying game, of which the overall plot was more than a little thought-provoking.

From the later 1990s to around the mid 2000s, I was part of a roleplaying group. We did do a little “Dungeons and Dragons,” which is what most think when they hear roleplaying games. But we did others, such as “Star Wars,” “Amber” (based on the fantasy novels by Timothy Zahn), Robotech, and a few others. The most versatile was GURPS, short for Generic Universal Role-Playing System. The idea was for a single set of rules in which numerous games could be based on. And with all the sourcebooks, there were a lot of possibilities.

Probably the other gamer the most like myself was Richard McCluney. He was the one other clean-shaven guy in his late 20s/early 30s who was in the group most of it’s years. And like me, he had a collection of science-fiction, and history books. Most of his player characters were reasonable, and when it was his turn to be the GM, I found his campaigns interesting, rewarding reasonable actions and wild gambits occasionally resulting in gains, but often resulting in complications that would take the efforts of other players, or NPCs, to solve.

Eventually, Richard would do a “First Contact” scenario in a GRUPS campaign, this would involve a humanoid race known as the “Grennins.” They looked much like humans, but were shorter and stronger, and had telepathic abilities. They were also more socialistic than humans, having a little personal property while anyone else in the family/guild/etc. could personally take and use whatever what was in reach. They also had trouble with other races as they didn’t bother to check what others claimed as their planets before building there. Despite some mishaps, gamers being gamers, the initial contact went overall okay. Later on in another campaign, Richard would bring them back as allies of humanity in a campaign in which Earth was a very small player in a big universe. Our corner had the Grennins struggling for regional supremacy against another race, the Threyans, who desired to defeat their forces and impose dictators over Earth’s governments to rule by proxy.

Eventually, around 2003, came his most plot-driven campaign. The player characters were part of a secret organization dealing with the paranormal and suspected extraterrestrial. We were in a sense members of an Men in Black style organization, though without the black suits and memory-wiping flash pens. Sent to investigate a suspected alien probe in Washington DC, they witness power going out and some kind of ring forming around the planet. Going back to base, they learn it appears to be some kind of space station circling the planet, then are alerted to head to a nearby place in Western Virginia that something dropping from the ring is headed. Getting there, they find a base forming. Then a portal opens and people step out, a group of Grennins.

It isn’t long before the language expert on the team finds the Grennin’s translator, and the two work on trying to learn each other’s languages. Their progress is rapid, and eventually the characters are able to learn some things. The aliens are here to establish bases for a transportation network, and have no wish to get into fights with the humans. The translator points out a few spots of trouble, such as bases in North Korea and some rebel-held areas in Latin America and places in the Middle East. The characters explain they aware of a few places where there was some conflict, but as far as they know, they involve either places controlled by outlaws or rouge states that don’t get along with others. During the talk, the translator refers to humans as “third level intelligences” and Grennins as fourth-level. At first the characters assume she’s talking about the tech level. Of the reason the Grennins are there, it seems they’re there to build a station area for an inter-galactic transportation network. One other thing comes up, the Grennins are telepathic.

Eventually the characters are called back to report and leave for the day. Thanks in part to the translators, the Grennins soon have a website on the Internet. This includes some basic history, of which their planet has had 100,000 years of. From 100 to 80,000 years ago was their first civilization, created by a forebear species. It ended in a nuclear war, causing civilization to collapse. Civilization would rise again, but with all easily found fossil fuel deposits used up, civilization remains in the Iron Age. This period would last until about 60,000 years ago when an ice age caused the end of civilization when the cities were abandoned. Once the ice retreated 40,000 years ago, a new species had taken the place of the previous ones: the Nausicans. They would develop a supertech civilization. They would also develop a servant race through genetic engineering: The Grennins. About 20,000 years ago, the Nausicans did a planetwide experiment to try and stop earthquakes. Unfortunately, the experiment has the opposite effect, and there’s deadly quakes all over the planet. The Nausicans evacuate, leaving the Grennins behind. They end up picking up the pieces. But they develop into two subspecies. The other ends up in a religion in which tries to enslave the other. The two keep coming to blows, and following the invention of interstellar travel the other subspecies is expelled. The Grennins have had faster-than-light travel for roughly 10,000 years.

By next morning, there’s a complication. Another group of aliens has arrived in ships distinct from the Grennins. Getting back to the base, the characters see there are a few of these new aliens there: the Threyans. It turns out the Threyans are the senior partners on this transportation network project. The talks get interrupted by reports of intruders. It seems a few primitives of a race known as the “jungle people” somehow stowed aboard in transit and attacked someone, and were then disposed of. When they’re also referred to as “third level intelligences,” the characters ask for an explanation, saying when they first heard the term, they thought it meant technological progress. It’s the Threyan who answers, saying First Level means insects and simple animals. Second Level means higher animals. Third level means sapient beings who are capable of intelligent thought, but whose thinking is still driven by drives and impulses. Fourth level are rational sapient beings who no longer have to worry about such impulses. In general, third-level races typically reach roughly the tech level one would expect to find gun powder weapons, then stops. “Few Third-Level species manage to achieve a technological civilization. And those that do, very few escape collapse.” The Threyans comment that the world’s strongest power, “the USA tribe,” having recently elected as it’s leader someone belonging to a religion that believes in the end of the world within a generation is another sign that Earth’s chances without supervision are small.

The Threyans also say Earth is within their territory, “we own it,” and say any negotiations between Earth and the rest of the Galaxy have to be carried out through them. Talks between various countries and the Grennins are halted, “We’re taking over.” It also is revealed the Grennins and Threyans have a rivalry. It seems the Grennins settled some worlds the Threyans claimed, and the result was a war in which 80,000 Grennin colonists were killed at the outset, and both sides killed about 20,000 each afterwards before there was finally a ceasefire.

In response to Threyan claims on their world, the humans eventually mention the tales of UFO sightings over the decades, as well as claims of abductions. This irritates the Threyans, though it seems less out of concern for the humans than that they consider their territory has been violated. One Grennin tells the humans that the Threyans have been overseeing the “third level” civilizations in their territory in different ways to see what worked best. In some cases, they tried taking away any technology and tool deemed too dangerous. The result was the race stagnating and declining.

The Threyans offer to take the human team to the world the Jungle People are believed to have come from: Warpion. They accept, the opportunity to see an alien world too much to resist, and go through a portal and emerge in a tropical jungle. They find a wonderous looking, but dangerous place, with a constant sense of being watched. They find a village, with bodies of what seem to be men from another tribe being prepared for butchery, but end up being spotted and have to get away. Back with the Threyan, he talks about a “plantimal” that dominates the world, a fungus-like being that controls the plants and can influence the animals to provoke attacks on those deemed to be too numerous to achieve a balance. Unfortunately, even sapient beings are considered just another animal to balance out.

To avoid problems between the Jungle People and the Humans, the team suggests a patrol. Unfortunately, things go badly when a Grennin team catches some leaving and fires on them, and are spotted by a National Guard squad who thinks the aliens are firing on humans and consider attacking. The Grennins telepathically pick this up and fire first. The team ends up detained overnight before talks with the US Government result in agreements.

The following day, the characters notice a crowd just outside security zone around the Grennin base. These are a mix of New Agers wanting to meet the aliens for supposed enlightenment, Christian fundamentalists who feel they need to present the truth of God to the aliens, and an assortment of others making for a rather motley bunch that isn’t exactly the ideal picture of humanity. Once in the base, the team finds there’s an alien spacecraft in the shape of the flying saucers seen in UFO stories, and the crew looking like the “bug-eyed aliens” seen by claimed abductees. The aliens admit that they’ve been exploring Earth, but deny claims of abducting anyone. Two of the team look around on the spacecraft, then one tries out the controls. The result is the craft portaling to their home planet, and the two getting away in another saucer.

The two humans land the saucer on a Grennin base, and both humans and Grennins get a look at it. The Xenologist among the human crew gets to take a few dormant clones for dissection. But there’s also some troubling developments. It turns out the bug-eyed aliens were abducting humans, though this was part of some experiment to try and halt what they called the “death spiral.” Checking further, these aliens had been doing experiments on one hundred “hypertech” third-level races. None of their efforts to prevent a global calamity succeeded, though there were “partial failures” in which civilization managed to avoid complete collapse and stabilized at a roughly Medieval or Colonial Age level. And without easily-accessed fossil fuels, they were stuck.

This was roughly where the roleplay campaign was put on hold while Richard would plan things. But it never would start again. Some time after, I heard Richard was making plans on writing a novel based on the roleplay. But sadly I would lose contact with him after 2006, so never got to see his completed story, if he did complete it. It would be a plot with Earth in quite a dilemma. Trying to avoid not just alien rule, but provided they succeed avoid blowing themselves up as well. The human team has differing opinions. The xenologist among them considers humans a “baby race” and feels they need supervision not unlike a seven-year old. The team leader is more optimistic, feeling their peoples have overcome the seemingly impossible before (but were smart about it) and feels they have a duty to both the founders of their democratic ways of life, as well as future generations, to stay independent.

What would follow, I can only speculate. The Grennins were expressing cautious optimism about Humanity’s future, and with their rivalry with the Threyans, the Grennins certainly wouldn’t mind an ally. The Threyans have the attitude “We’ve seen them come, and we’ve seen them go,” and are not about to give up what they consider their territory, at least not beyond it’s use as a “bus stop” as the xenologist musingly calls the plans for transportation network bases. From what little is heard of other races, the majority seem even more skeptical of humans than the Threyans, seeing the stereotypical human as not hick farmers but Arab terrorists, people who would use whatever technology and tools they get to blow others up who they see as outside their tribe. It’s notable that the Threyans have been picking up Earth broadcasts and find human entertainment interesting, as well as making some currency showing it to other races. They’ve also been showing newscasts, though, and scenes like the 9/11 terrorist attack are part of the reason those that know of humans are wary of them. Many other races aren’t too fond of the Grennins either, due to a number of incidents in which Grennin forces fired first at others, saying they picked up telepathically they were about to be attacked. Of ways to “civilize” the humans, some Grennins suggest a genetic-engineering program to make some humans telepaths and to weed out certain genes linked to impulsive behavior. And then there’s one other detail. The bases on Earth would put out so much heat, there’d be a runaway greenhouse effect, and the Threyans want a “plantanimal” on parts of the Earth, at least in places where there aren’t many humans such as the Sahara and Siberia.

I imagine the world governments, at least the major ones, would start to come together, at least in secret due to Threyans insisting they will handle all international relations. It’s probable some rouge nation or two would seek to ally with the Threyans, offering to govern Earth in their behalf. Conflict between the Grennins and Threyans, should it break out, the results wouldn’t be pretty, involving destruction worse in some ways than atomic bombs. And should the Threyans be dislodged, Earth would almost certainly need the help of the Grennins to stay independent as someone else who would treat humans far worse would likely try to move in. Trying to get the respect of the Galactic community would not be easy from what I saw of Richards notes, such as one society demanding that Earth outlaw religion, or else. Earth’s major governments would likely also be facing resistance from within from religious fundamentalists to sovereign citizens who would prefer death over the end of traditional ways of life. There very well could be incidents like the samurai who resisted the changes in Japan in it’s Mejii period. The price of independence from alien hedgemony could very well mean a more restrictive life with a lower standard of living, with many once cherished beliefs such as privacy and the right to be left alone compromised.

Richard also had a blog titled “Watching The World Die,” so it seems he wasn’t too happy with US and world events from 2003-2006. It’s hard to say what he would have thought of the next five years. But considering how things have been for the past several, it’s likely he would have seen the increasing political discord and disinformation, such as the anti-vaxxer movement having gone from tin-foil hat crackpot idea to widely accepted, he might be wondering if we’re already in the “death spiral.” It’s just a matter of if the collapse takes us back to the Iron Age or the Stone Age. That is, those of us who survive the starvation, disease, and violence. Either way, humans would fall back on what they’ve been good at, killing and enslaving each other year after year, decade after decade, century after century for many millennia until the slow, cold hand of evolution changes our descendants’ brains into something that can more easily find solutions other than conflict. By that time, there would be nothing left of us except perhaps preserved garbage at the bottom of ancient landfills.

But like the leader of the human contact team, I don’t consider ourselves doomed just yet. Richard’s plot for his novel was dark but interesting. Maybe I can use it as inspiration for a future sci-fi tale of my own in a few years.

Murray M. Lee

Presidents I Have Witnessed: George Bush – The Last GI President

Posted on by murraylee757

He was accused of being a wimp and depicted as carrying a purse, yet he led America’s greatesd military triumph since the Second World War. He was accused of running a mean-spirited election campaign, yet called for a kinder and gentler America. No Vice President had been elected in over a century and a half, but he was. George Bush was a President of contradictions, one whose term was in an active time in world history.

George Bush was born in Massachusetts in 1924, the son of a banker. The family would move to Connecticut soon after. On his 18th birthday, he would enlist in the US Navy to become a pilot. He was commissioned in June 1943, and sent to the Pacific theater in 1944, his first combat mission in May. In an attack on Chichi-jima, he successfully hit several ground targets, but his plane was damaged and he had to bail out over the ocean. His two crewmates were killed, but he was rescued by a submarine. Other pilots were not so lucky, captured and then killed and partially eaten by the Japanese soldiers. Bush would be awarded the Distinguished Flying Cross for the mission, but his brush with death had an effect on him, wondering why fate had spared him.

Lt. Bush would be released from active duty following Japan’s surrender in September 1945. Earlier that year, he married his fiance Barbara Peirce. Following his graduation from college, they would move to Texas, getting into the oil business. He would win election as a Congressman in 1966 and served until Jan 1971. He would go on to become the UN Ambassador, the Chairman of the Republican National Committee, the head of the US Liaison Office in China, and the Director of the CIA.

Bush would run for the Republican nomination for the Presidential Election in 1980, branding the frontrunner Reagan’s plans as “voodoo economics.” But Reagan would dominate the primaries and he withdrew in May. The conservative Reagan would choose Bush as his running mate partially out of hopes he would in over moderates. Reagan would go on to win the election. As Reagan’s Vice-President, Bush’s role was mostly low-profile. In Reagan’s first-term, he would lead a couple panels. In the second, Bush was never accused of a crime in the Iran-Contra investigations, but was aware that the Reagan administration was selling weapons to Iran with Iran promising they would pressure allies in Lebanon to release hostages.

Bush would announce his running for President in late 1987. He would take back his earlier comments about “voodoo economics” and chance his stance on abortion to fit the party’s “pro-life” platform. Still, some conservatives had reservations about him, and in the first caucus in Iowa came out third behind Bob Dole, a Senator and Ford’s Vice President, and Pat Robertson, a televangelist. Bush was accused of being a political lightweight, and some were talking about “the wimp factor,” which led to some jokes and cartoonist Oliphant depicting Bush as carrying a woman’s purse for the election and long afterwards. But his campaign, run by Lee Atwater, would counterattack by raising questions about Dole’s commitment to the Republican platform of not raising taxes. Bush would win the New Hampshire Primary and dominate the race for the nomination, leading to most of his opponents withdrawing by March. The Democrats had several candidates that didn’t especially appeal to the public, leading to the collective nickname “seven dwarves.” But over the course of the primaries Michael Dukakis, Governor of Massachusetts, would get the most delegates.

Promoting his being in charge of an economic recovery in his state, and his peers depicting Bush as as out of touch, Dukakis had a huge lead in the polls over the course of the summer between the party conventions. But the Republican convention gave Bush a much needed bouce, and on Labor Day the two were roughly equal. Bush would choose Dan Quayle, a Senator from Indiana, as his running mate, a choice that pleased a few conservatives and it was hoped the youthful VP candidate would appeal to younger voters. But Quayle was branded as a “chicken hawk” for his serving in the National Guard during Vietnam, and had a way of coming across as not very bright in front of the camera. It’s believed he hurt the campaign more than helped. But Dukakis would go for a low-risk campaign while Bush’s raised questions about the Governor, calling him soft on crime and a “tax and spend” liberal. Bush would also make his number one promise, “Read my lips, no new taxes.” Dukakis had a way of coming across as dispassionate at times, notably when one reporter at a debate asked him what he would do if his wife was raped and murdered, and then there was his publicity stunt of driving a tank that backfired badly. Dukakis fell behind in the polls, and while he tried a last-minute push, it wasn’t enough. Bush would win 426 to 111 in the Electoral College and get over 53 percent of the Popular Vote. He would be the first Vice President elected President during his term in over 150 years, and it would be the fifth loss for the Democrats out of the last six times in races for the Presidency.

Bush started his term at the tail end of America’s longest economic boom since the Second World War. But in 1988, 1989, and 1990 three Savings and Loan bank associations went bankrupt. Bush’s son Neil was in charge of one. Another had five Senators, Democrat and Republican, implicated in what became known as the “Keating Five” scandal, including former astronaut John Glenn and future Presidential candidate John McCain. The S&L mess would require a 50 billion dollar bailout to fix, and that his son was involved cost him politically. More than one political commentator remarked that it looked like the Reagan years had been one big party in which Bush ended up paying the bill. But as it was under his watch, Bush got the blame.

In 1990, the economy would slip into recession. There was also a problem with rising deficits. The President wanted to do something about both, though was committed to keeping defense spending high and had made “no new taxes” his most important promise. But because of the Gramm-Rudman act requiring automatic spending cuts if there were none and the Fed refusing to lower interest rates, and the Democrats refusing to budge, Bush gave in and stated he would be open to tax increases. While the move was applauded by some economists, the President found himself lampooned by cartoonists and late night comedians, and many conservatives saw this as betrayal. Bush had the problem of taking charge following the term of an especially popular President. Going back on his “no new taxes” pledge made him look even less in comparison. Reagan supposedly stated at one point, “He doesn’t seem to stand for anything.”

In 1989 came the Exxon-Valdeez oil spill which contaminated over a thousand miles of Alaskan coastline. The short-term result was the price of gasoline going up. Later on, Bush would sign the Oil Pollution Act of 1990. Bush would call himself an environmentalist, pointing out this and a proposed strengthening of the Clean Air Act. but his critics very much disagreed, citing opposition to other proposed environmental rules such as car mileage standards.

Bush would work with Canada to include Mexico in the NAFTA free trade agreement. The expanded treaty agreement would be signed in December 1992. Overall, the move was good for the economy. But it would mean more factories closing in the USA, and blue collar workers having to find other work. According to the “Trickle Down” theory championed by Reagan and other conservatives, the rising economy would mean more and better jobs for them. But over time, the new jobs that were opening either required much more education than these workers usually had or were service-industry ones that paid less.

Bush was an advocate of volunteerism, using the expression “thousand points of light” to describe people rising up to solve the problems of others as an alternative to turning to government. During his term, he honored many volunteers with the “Daily Point of Light Award.” The Points of Light Foundation would be created in 1990. Liberal crtics charged it was the President trying to get Government to avoid the responsibility of caring for needy people.

In May 1989, Dictator Manuel Noregia of Panama annulled the results of an election for the country’s Presidency, saying there was interference from the USA. Relations between him and the United States had been gradually deteriorating since the mid-1980s due to Noregia being involved in drug trafficking to America, and there were concerns for not just the rights of the people there but the Panama Canal itself which the USA had pledged to hand over full control by 2000. After a failed coup and an incident in which an American Marine was killed, Bush ordered US forces to invade in December. Known as “Operation Just Cause,” it was the largest military operation not related to the Cold War in decades. Twenty-three Americans were killed, and after briefly taking refuge in the Vatican Embassy Noregia would turn himself in. He was brought to the US where he was convicted and sentenced to 40 years in prison.

Also in 1989 was the fall of the Iron Curtain. In May, Hungary began dismantling the barbed wire on it’s border with the west, and allowed free travel. The result was hundreds of people from East Germany fleeing to the west. Eventually the East German government relented and allowed free travel across it’s border to West Germany and West Berlin. The result was celebrations and parties on the Berlin Wall, the scenes broadcasted on TV across much of the world, followed by the tearing down of most of the wall. Other Communist governments in Eastern Europe would fall . Except for Romania’s violent revolution in December, they would be peaceful. Bush would not intervene, nor were there calls for him to do so. Why try to dismantle your opponents when they’re busy dismantling themselves?

Sadly not all the anti-Communist revolutions that year had happy outcomes. In April 1989, students gathered in support of a popular government official who had died. Before long, the gathering developed into a protest, the students making a number of demands, including freedom of the press and greater accountability of government officials. The situation would last for weeks and on May 20 the government declared martial law, but the protests went on, the demonstrators numbering in the tens of thousands. Finally on June 4, the Chinese army rolled in, dispersing the students, killing an unknown number. While there would be some economic reforms later on believed to be a concession, I personally would speak to a few Chinese Americans commenting what a sad contrast China had been to Eastern Europe. The Bush Administration would condemn China’s actions, but they and other Western governments would do little else.

The reforms of the Soviet Union’s leader Gorbachev would end up resulting in not so much the revitalization of the country, but instead gave new life to long-dormant nationalist movements, notably in the Baltics. Gorbachev eventually responded by starting to crack down. Bush made some protest, but also went on to negotiate a nuclear missile reduction treaty with him, START, which would end up being the largest in history, resulting in the disappearance of most strategic nuclear weapons at the time. Eventually, hard-line Communists would try to oust Gorbachev in a coup in August 1991. It failed after three days of protests, the end result being the Soviet Union falling apart, and Gorbachev would announce his resignation on December 25,1991, the USSR now official gone. After many decades, America’s Cold War adversary was now history.

With the Cold War fading into history, people began to talk about “the peace dividend.” Since the Russians were no longer so confrontational, surely some of the money going to military spending could be put to other purposes. Liberals were hoping for greater social spending. Conservatives were hoping for lower taxes, payment of some of America’s debt, or some of both. Some pointed out that Senators and Congressmen wouldn’t just let military bases, and the jobs they directly and indirectly provided, close down without resistance. The debate was still going on when on August 1990, Iraq’s dictator Saddam Hussein ordered the invasion of tiny but oil-rich Kuwait. Bush and other world leaders demanded he leave, and began organizing a coalition to liberate the country by force. Some in America hoped for a peaceful solution, considering a use of force ethically questionable, concerned about the body count, or both. Hussein refused to budge, and on January 16, American and its allies began bombing Iraqi targets. Air superiority was gained almost instantly. Hussein tried to fracture the coalition of Arab and Western states by launching Scud missiles into Israel to bring it into the conflict. But the Jewish state stayed out. After over a month of softening up, on February 23 American-led Coalition forces advanced into southeastern Iraq and Kuwait in what came to be known as “The hundred-hour ground war.” Earlier worries about massive American casualties proved unfounded as the Iraqis were simply no match for the US, British, Canadian, and other Coalition forces and Kuwait was liberated, Iraqi forces surrendering in droves.

Some wondered if the Gulf War was a complete victory as Kuwait was back in the hands of a monarch and not a republican government, America had to stay to make sure there were no further threats to Iraq’s neighbors, as well as the Kurds in northern Iraq, and Saddam was still in power. Still it was America’s greatest military victory since the Second World War, and there would be none like it since (up to the writing of this article). Bush would talk about a “New World Order,” one in which the sovereignty of all nations was respected and no aggressive actions by a rouge country out to conquer others would go unanswered. Critics called this America playing global cop. Others cautioned that if America simply retreated into isolationism, history suggested that forces far more uncaring and bloodthirsty than the US Government in it’s most self-serving moments would end up filling the void. For better or worse, the “Pax Americana” was best not just for America but for the West and the world. In any event, the Defense budget would remain large, and all talk of the “peace dividend” vanished.

Bush’s popularity soared. But as the months past, the triumph was becoming more and more of a memory as it was back to dealing with America’s recession, which dragged on and on. There was also the scene during a visit to Japan in which Bush got sick and vomited on the Prime Minister, making him look hapless. And there was when Bush was shown a supermarket barcode reader, which had replaced cashiers punching in prices by hand in the days before he was Vice-President, and he appeared amazed, making him look out of touch to the realities of everyday Americans.

Bush would be declared “Man of the Year” by Time Magazine in December 1990, but the article was not entirely a complementary one. The photo was a double exposure of two faces of the man, one smiling, one unhappy. It was to reflect the contrast between his foreign and domestic policies. Overseas he had triumphed with the collapse of the Iron Curtain and forging the diplomatic and military alliance against Saddam Hussein. But at home he floundered with the country in recession and having to go back on his famous promise not to raise taxes.

Bush’s chances at reelection looked strong just after his victory in Iraq, and a number of strong Democratic contenders would sit out the 1992 Presidential Election. Bill Clinton would overcome difficulties such as an admitted extramarital affairs, and the “Comeback Kid” would get the nomination from the Democrats. Bush would find himself challenged for the Republican nomination by political commentator Pat Buchanan. He would beat him with some difficulty. While both parties were in the first of their primaries came a wild card, billionaire Ross Perot announcing an independent run for the White House, citing the deficit and the unwillingness of professional politicians to do what was right as a threat to the country. His less than polished style (not unlike Donald Trump’s a quarter century later) got the attention of the public and was ahead in the polls for some weeks. Then his erratic claims and some of his past began to raise doubts, and Perot would quit in frustration in July, though would re-enter on October 1. Bush would raise questions about Clinton’s character. But the economy was still floundering and Bill Clinton’s youth was appealing to many, especially Baby-Boomers who saw a chance to put one of their own in the White House. And after twelve years of Republicans in the White House, some felt it was time for a change. Bush would remain behind in the polls. On Election Day, Bill Clinton would win 370 to 168 Electoral Votes, and get 43 percent of the Popular vote compared to 37.5 for Bush. With almost 19% of the Popular Vote, Perot had the strongest showing for a third-party candidate since Teddy Roosevelt’s Bull Moose run in 1912.

Bush and his wife would retire to a home in Texas after leaving the White House. He would deliver some speeches over the years and make a few other appearances. He would also support some charities. In 1993, he was the target of an assassination attempt by Saddam Hussein. As sons of his would assume political office, he would tell them to not be afraid to do what he wouldn’t and chart their own course. Eventually his son George W. Bush would win the White House in 2000, making Bush senior or “Bush 41” as he sometimes came to be called the first President whose son also became President since John Adams in 1824. He would raise some questions about his son’s decision to invade and occupy Iraq, and would outright criticize Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign for the Republican nomination, then the White House.

Bush would pass away on November 30, 2018 at age 94, at the time America’s oldest President. As of now, he is the last President to have died.

As the years have gone by, Bush’s reputation has overall improved. Conservatives have eased up somewhat for his going back on his promise not to raise taxes. His decision not to prolong the Gulf War and topple Hussein was vindicated when the Iraq war a decade later turned out to be a prolonged conflict with insurgents/terrorists. While Democrats blasted his negative campaigning in 1988, it was largely forgiven in the days of President Trump, Bush seen as an example of what a Republican President should be. Personally, I would rank him around B- or C+. Of other Presidents in my lifetime who failed to win reelection, he would be the most effective of them. While not a particularly inspiring leader, his prudence did shape the post-Cold War world as America dominant in a world where larger nations couldn’t just push around smaller ones.

Bush in a sense was the sunset of a generation of American politicians. Never again would a veteran from the Second World War be elected President. Curiously, all who followed him as of the writing of this article would be from the Baby Boom generation, the Korean War or “Silent” Generation while producing a number of candidates would never get an American President. He would also be the last President of a time of Republican dominance. From 1968 to 1992, the Democrats would only win one Presidential Election. 1988 itself would be the last time a Republican was elected President with a popular vote victory, at least as of the time this article was written. Afterwards, Republicans would win with Electoral victories but lose the popular vote, resulting in less of a mandate.

Murray M. Lee